Chapter 9

9. Ice

The ice that forms between the shore and sina (ice edge), sometimes known as land fast ice, will be referred to as fast ice in the EIS.

This chapter describes ice conditions in and around the Landscape Region and the physical track made in the fast ice by ships transiting to and from the port site in Anaktalak Bay. The analysis also considers the pack ice that is present offshore during the winter and the pack ice that often invades inshore waters following break-up of the fast ice cover.

9.1 Existing Environment

"Someone has referred to the ice as our highway. It is more than a highway. It is one we include in what we call land. Maybe this is something they don't understand. It is a difference of perspective. Because of the wildlife resources that exist in that area year round, it is a highway, a hunting area and a home." Gerard Flavor, (through translator) Panel Scoping Sessions in Nain, 16 April 1997.

Along the northern coast of Labrador, ice in all its forms is a prominent feature of the landscape, characterized by a high degree of natural variability. The fast ice acts as an extension of the land for over five months of the year. For animals such as ringed seals, the fast ice provides habitat for breeding and whelping. It also serves as a surface for travel by local residents and caribou. People living in the communities of the Northern Coast are knowledgeable about the ice environment since they use the fast ice for recreation, travel to neighbouring communities for social visits, and access to resource harvesting areas.

The uses of fast ice by seals, caribou and local residents are summarized in Table 9.1.

Specific details, including use by other wildlife species, can be found in Chapters 13, 16 and 20.

Table 9.1 Summary of Fast Ice Use

User	Use	Spatial Limits	Timing
ringed seals, harp seals, bearded seals, hooded seals, harbour seals	whelping, sunning or resting	shore to fast ice edge concentrated near fast ice edge	December - June (entire ice season)
caribou	travel between mainland and coastal islands, and possibly predator avoidance	irregular distribution	irregular/not present every year
residents of coastal communities	travel to communities and cabins for social visits, wooding, hunting, ice fishing, trapping	fast ice throughout the Landscape Region	late December to early June (depending on ice conditions)

Existing marine operations on the Labrador North Coast do not generally interact with fast ice, except when the ice freezes early, prior to the usual end of the shipping season. There has never been regular winter vessel traffic in the Landscape Region. The existing marine traffic is restricted by contract to the ice free season. The summer supply vessels arriving at Nain can be delayed by heavy pack ice until late July in some years. In most years, shipping is terminated in November.

9.1.1 Environmental Assessment Boundaries

Capitalized terms used (such as Landscape Region and VBNC Claim Block) may be defined in other chapters. Some terms and phrases used may have different definitions in other chapters depending upon the context in which they are used; for example, the Assessment Area.

Shipping activity will take place along a defined corridor within the fast ice from Edward's Cove to the fast ice edge. The environmental Assessment Area (the Ice Assessment Area) for ice is therefore the spatial extent, defined in Figure 9.1, of the fast ice in the Landscape Region. The focus of the environmental assessment is on the ice immediately along and adjacent to the shipping route to Edward's Cove. The shipping route is shown in Figure 9.1, superimposed on a range of historic fast ice edges mapped from satellite images during the months of January to early June, from 1974 to 1997. The east/west range agrees closely with the seasonal fluctuations of the boundary between fast ice and pack ice (sina) mapped by Nain residents interviewed in an LIA study (Williamson 1997). Similarly, the north south extent of the fast ice shown in Figure 9.1 closely follows the composite boundaries shown in the same study. Although VBNC studies have focused on ice along the shipping route, environmental effects predictions will be made for the Landscape Region ice regime.

Figure 9.1 Ice Assessment Area and Historic Range in Fast Ice Extent

9.1.1.1 Administrative Boundaries

In Canada, ships are permitted to operate in all navigable waters provided the vessel is equipped, fitted and certified for the voyage intended. There is no legislation directed at controlling ship operations in fast ice in the Landscape Region. Consequently, there is no identifiable administrative boundary that applies specifically to ice in the Landscape Region. There is, however, a guideline published by Transport Canada called "Ice Navigation in Canadian Waters" (Canadian Coast Guard 1990). All vessels operating in ice within Canada's territorial waters are required to have this publication onboard.

Various agencies and departments have jurisdiction over shipping activities as they relate to water quality, oil spills, marine mammals, fish habitat, and other aspects of the marine environment. For example, the Fisheries Act governs discharges of any substances deleterious to fish and the Marine Mammal Protection Act may apply to particular cases of vessel operation. Other relevant legislation and agreements include Canadian-ratified international agreements (e.g., through the International Maritime Organization (IMO), and the Canada Shipping Act (CSA)). No distinction is made in these Acts as to whether the water is ice-covered.

Recent amendments to the Canada Shipping Act specify the requirements for oil transfer and spill contingency plans for both vessels and shoreside oil handling facilities, as well as inspection programs for foreign vessels entering Canadian waters.

9.1.1.2 Technical Boundaries

The new generation of Canadian radar satellites available since 1996 overcomes many of the limitations associated with previous ice mapping systems. Radarsat was extensively used by VBNC in carrying out ice studies in 1996 (Dickins 1996) and 1997 (Cormorant Ltd. 1997).

There are limitations and technical constraints affecting acquisition and interpretation of ice data:

mapping of historical ice conditions is restricted by the coarse scale of government ice charts and the relatively small number of available high resolution satellite images (Dickins 1997);

monitoring ice growth and formation through ground-based measurements involves interpolation between sample points; and

field surveys at start and end of the ice season are constrained by safety issues for personnel on the ice surface.

Taking these and other technical issues into account, there is still a very complete body of knowledge available on the timing, extent and thickness of fast ice in the Ice Assessment Area (Section 9.1.3).

9.1.2 Methods

The knowledge base on ice conditions is derived from three main sources:

technical references already publicly available, including technical notes on ice conditions in the vicinity of Voisey's Bay, produced by the Canadian Ice Service (1996), ice thickness records for Hopedale for the period 1960-1984 (Canadian Ice Service 1992), community ice observations at Hopedale for the period 1965-1974 (Allen 1977), information from historic Labrador diaries of the Moravian Mission from 1795-1917 (Elton and Ashburner 1980) and an unpublished diary of MacMillan's voyage to Labrador in 1927/1928;

Project-specific studies commissioned by VBNC, including the 1996 spring break-up survey (Dickins 1996), ice edges mapped during winter 1996 caribou and ringed seal surveys (JWEL 1997a; 1997b), areas of expected ice breaking (Dickins 1997), the 1997 winter ice monitoring program (Cormorant Ltd. 1997), and a review of historical ice conditions (Dickins 1997); and

Inuit knowledge of ice conditions in the Nain District described and mapped in Williamson (1997) and provided at VBNC shipping workshops.

9.1.3 Existing Conditions

The variability in fast ice and pack ice conditions along the shipping route was studied over the period 1972-1996 (Dickins 1997). Aerial surveys and radarsat imagery were used to map the progression of break-up and the fast ice edge (sina) in late May and early June 1996 (Dickins 1996). Snow and ice conditions along the Route were documented in detail during the 1996-1997 winter through field measurements, aerial surveys, and remote sensing (Cormorant Ltd. 1997). There is now a 25-year record of ice conditions directly applicable to the Project consisting of ice charts, satellite imagery, surface measurements, aerial reconnaissance, and climate analysis.

The following sections use these data, in combination with the results contained in Williamson (1997) to quantify the timing, extent, and thickness of fast ice in the Ice Assessment Area.

Williamson (1997) provides a concise summary of sea ice along the Labrador Coast:

Sea ice, in the words of Hare (1950:117), "is not merely a consequence of winter cold; it is also a climatic factor in its own right, drastically changing the climate of the whole year". There are three kinds of ice: land fast ice which freezes in situ along the coast among the islands and in the bays, inlets, and fjords; arctic pack ice which flows outside the winter land fast ice, coming from Hudson Strait and Baffin Bay; and icebergs, which have calved off the glaciers of Greenland and Ellesmere Island. In northern Labrador, land fast ice usually forms between late November and early January, progressing from north to south. Violent winds during the freeze-up period can delay formation of permanent ice for several weeks and the ice surface can be extremely rough. A sudden cold snap in autumn, accompanied by an extended period of calm weather, on the other hand, will bring on an early and rapid formation of ice, which can withstand the subsequent winds. Once the land fast ice takes hold, it remains throughout the winter, becoming like the land, soon covered with snow in sheltered places and scoured clean in others by the strong winds channelled out of the bays and fjords. The break-up period usually lasts three weeks, terminating fairly consistently in the month of June. The onset of onshore winds, can keep the pack ice in, however, and delay navigation for a month or more.

9.1.3.1 Fast Ice Timing

Fast ice is defined as sea ice that forms and remains along the coast where it is attached to shore. When the young fast ice is broken up by fall and early winter storms (e.g., January 1997) the subsequent ice sheet may contain a mix of new ice combined with remnants of the original fast ice. Fast ice very close to shore can be further divided into bottom fast (out to several metres depending on tides), free floating, and grounded (through ridging).

New ice has a thickness of less than 5 cm and young ice has a thickness between 5-30 cm.

Storm winds in the fall play a major role in determining when the fast ice becomes established sufficiently to remain through the winter. The past winter (1996/1997) is a good example of such an effect. New ice was observed forming in protected bays close to Nain as early as mid-November 1996, yet there was still no stable ice cover across the channels leading to Anaktalak Bay by mid-December. The initial sheet of new ice across Edward's Cove, in the vicinity of the proposed port site, was broken up by strong winds in late December. A second new ice sheet was then submerged by a heavy snowfall at the end of the month (forming a condition locally referred to in the spring as "slob" ice). Final freeze-up in the shipping channel between Palungitak Island and Ford's Harbour occurred in the last week of January after a period of strong outflow (westerly) winds on January 18-19 broke up the first fast ice in the area (Cormorant Ltd. 1997).

In the Landscape Region, the winter fast ice edge tends to form free-floating bridges between successive islands, shoals and islets running roughly north/south from Dog Island to Tunungayualok Island. Depending on the pressure exerted by the offshore pack ice, the edge may remain inshore in the vicinity of Whale Island, Skull Island and Humbys Island or expand seaward to encompass the Hen and Chickens and Lost Islands (Figure 9.1). The area between these extremes is subject to fracturing and movement when under pressure from winds and the local daily tide-induced movements. If such fracturing is followed by a strong sustained westerly wind, large sections of the fast ice can break off and drift offshore in a matter of a few hours. This will leave a new ice edge further inshore by up to tens of kilometres and a broad north/south flaw lead between the offshore pack ice and fast ice.

This area of uncertain fast ice is likely to be fractured or potentially hazardous for travel during much of the winter, particularly during the months of December, January, February, and March when winds are from the west or northwest about 50 percent of the time (SNC-Lavalin 1991).

"... Every year is different. You get the different temperatures, you get the different snow falls. Some years it may freeze over in the middle of November and then turn mild for about a month and just doesn't form properly" (Jim Webb, Panel Scoping Session in Nain, 17 April 1997)

Ranges in break-up and freeze-up dates derived from long-term ice charts prepared by the Canadian Ice Service over a sixteen year period from 1980-1996 (Dickins 1997) are listed in Table 9.2. Eight additional years of break-up dates are available for the period 1972 to 1979 but without matching dates for freeze-up (1972 through 1975 can be estimated by using Hopedale data contained in Allen 1997). Depending on the number of available charts, the timing of freeze-up often had to be interpolated between charts separated by ten days or more.

Table 9.2 Fast Ice Freeze-up and Break-up: Satosoak Island 1980-1996

	Start of Fast Ice ¹ (1979-1996)	Break-up ² (1972-1996)	Duration of Fast Ice
Earliest or Minimum	November 25, 1979	May 31, 1979 & 86	139 days (1996)
Latest or Maximum	January 20, 1996	July 7, 1991	210 days (1991)
Mean	December 15	June 17	183 days

¹ "Start of Fast Ice" means the first appearance of a complete ice cover. Along the Labrador Coast, ice often occurs along shore and in protected bays a month or more in advance of the first fast ice.
² Break-up is interpreted as the first date when ice charts report that 9/10 or less of an area of ocean surface is covered with ice, in an area which was formerly mapped as fast ice.

Nearshore waters inside of Paul Island are often clear of ice within 7-10 days of the break-up dates defined in Table 9.2. In some years, such as 1996, high concentrations of pack ice and fast ice remnants can persist along the shipping route for up to six weeks following break-up.

Documentation of ice behaviour in the Voisey's Bay area is available from Moravian mission accounts (Elton and Ashburner 1980), and from a diary of George MacMillan's voyage to Labrador in 1927-1928 (MacMillan 1928 in Leacock and Rothschild 1994). Old and new databases are combined to produce a record spanning 200 years in Figure 9.2. In order to directly compare recent data with the older records, break-up must be defined as water clear of ice (different from the definition used in Table 9.2).

The historic information shows that the timing of formation and decay of the fast ice along the coast is similar (within five days) for communities within 120 km north or south of Nain. It is difficult to interpret any long term pattern due to the inconsistent availability of historic data. Data from the 1800s display somewhat greater variability than the modern record and seem to indicate that there has been only a slight shift in the ice season since that time. Mission accounts in the 1800s point to a somewhat earlier freeze-up (by one to two weeks) together with a slightly later break-up. The average ice season during the period 1820-1890 may have been 10 to 15 days longer than the present day, indicating somewhat colder winters and thicker ice.

Figure 9.2 Historic Range of Break-up and Freeze-up Dates in the Nain Area

The duration of fast ice in the Nain area is about one month longer than, for example Botwood, Newfoundland. Sites in the Northwest Territories (NWT) typically have a much longer ice season than Nain; Arctic Bay, NWT is surrounded by fast ice from October to July.

The variability in timing of travel on the ice recorded at Hopedale between 1965-1974 (Allen 1977) is summarized in Table 9.3. Although specific dates will vary in any given year, this record is still the most representative published data showing the likely on-ice travel season in northern Labrador. Similar patterns of on-ice travel are described in Williamson (1997).

Table 9.3 Timing of On-ice Travel at Hopedale, 1965-74

Ice Condition	Range in Dates
Ice safe for traffic	December 9 to January 9
Ice unsafe for traffic	May 12 to June 10

Source: Hopedale Records 1965-1974 (Allen 1977)

Both historic and recent databases demonstrate the extreme annual variability both in dates of formation and rates of ice growth along the Labrador Coast. For example, there is a spread of up to seven weeks in freeze-up and break-up dates between extreme years over the full period of record (not accounting for the presence of summer pack ice, which can greatly extend the overall ice season).

Local residents have observed a recent shift in the natural patterns of ice formation, growth and decay in Labrador. Nain residents interviewed in Williamson (1997) indicate that freeze-up, which normally occurs around the second-half of December, has taken place in January in the past two years. Study participants suggested that the ice takes longer to freeze and that less snow accumulates on the ice surface. Further, it was also observed that ice breaks up and becomes more dangerous for travel much more quickly, and is not as thick at the end of the winter as it used to be.

9.1.3.2 Fast Ice Extent

Composites of fast ice edges (Figures 9.3 to 9.5) were mapped from 18 historical satellite images in three different winter periods: January; February to March; and April to June. A similar number of images were collected during the 1997 ice season and provide a detailed chronology of the fast ice extent from January to May (Cormorant Ltd. 1997). Each time period can be described according to the following general pattern of extent and stability.

Figure 9.3 Fast Ice Edges Mapped from Satellite Imagery in January

Figure 9.4 Fast Ice Edges Mapped from Satellite Imagery in February and March

Figure 9.5 Fast Ice Edges Mapped from Satellite Imagery in April to June

January: There is a rapid expansion of young fast ice to include Paul Island and stretching northeast to include Whale Island. Under extreme conditions, the ice edge in January can extend much further to the east (e.g., January 15, 1985, shown in Figure 9.3).

February to March: The stable fast ice position normally connects Gull Island, Starvation Island, Whale Island, Skull Island, Crossbones Island, The Clusters, Humbys Island, and extends southeast to link with Spracklins Island at the southern limit of the study area. Annual variations in this "stable" position usually result in edges within 10 km of Whale Island, but frequently fast ice extends out to Hen and Chickens and beyond (e.g., 1974-1978 and 1979 (Figure 9.4).)

April to early June: The locations of the ice edge has variable positions, and frequently extends as far east as 61�40' W longitude, 35-40 km farther seaward than the most common during the February-March period. These extensions place the ice edge most frequently within the group of islets known as the Hen and Chickens and the Lost Islands (representing the most seaward anchoring points available to stabilize the fast ice against the forces of the offshore pack). Under ideal conditions (cold temperatures and calm winds) fast ice can extend much farther out to sea for short periods (e.g., May 19, 1978, shown in Figure 9.5). Travel on such extensions can be extremely dangerous and local people avoid such trips whenever there is a westerly (offshore) wind (Williamson 1997).

Depending on wind conditions, periods of extended fast ice may last from weeks to months. When the wind shifts to strong westerlies after a period of strong onshore winds (easterlies), large sections (tens of kilometres) of the fast ice that were already fractured by the pack ice pressure can break away and rapidly drift offshore. Westerly winds predominate on the Labrador coast from October to March (SNC-Lavalin 1991).

9.1.3.3 Fast Ice Thickness

The expected growth and thickness of fast ice along the shipping route has been compiled from three different sources: historical measurements at Hopedale, 1997 studies along the shipping route, and hindcast modelling (forecasting the range in expected future conditions based on historical data).

Standard deviation of 19 cm means that 67% of the time, the snow accumulation could be as little as 8 cm or as much as 46 cm.

Periodic measurements collected at Hopedale harbour over a 24-year period (1961 to 1984) show mean, maximum and minimum thicknesses of 107, 135 and 80 cm, respectively. In an average year, ice reaches its maximum thickness in the last week of April. The first measurable loss in ice due to melt occurs at the end of the first week of May (Canadian Ice Service 1992). The historic curves for Hopedale are reproduced in Figure 9.6. Average fast ice growth rates in mid-winter (mid-January to late March) can range from 0.5 cm/day in an extremely mild winter to 0.7 cm/day in the coldest winter (initial growth rates for the first week following freeze-up can reach 2 cm/day). Hopedale observations show average snow accumulations on the ice in late winter of 27 cm, with a standard deviation of 19 cm.

Figure 9.6 Hopedale Ice Thickness and Snow Depth

Concurrent measurements of ice thickness in 1997 (see following) indicate that fast ice conditions along the shipping route are similar to those in Hopedale. A comparison of 1997 measured thickness of Hopedale fast ice with the 24-year database shows that the 1997 ice year was more severe than normal. By comparison, the mean fast ice thickness of 107 cm in the Nain area falls about midway between sea ice thickness recorded in southern Canada and the High Arctic. For example, Botwood, Newfoundland sees 58 cm of ice in an average year (80 cm maximum), while in Arctic Bay, NWT, sea ice grows to an average thickness of 146 cm (168 cm maximum) at the end of the season.

Snow and ice thickness was measured at over fifty points along the shipping route from January to May 1997 (Figure 9.7). Results from this program showed that with an extremely late freeze-up, interrupted by storms in late December and mid-January, the fast ice grew to between 115-130 cm along the route by May 7 (last complete record). Peak values at several stations exceeded 140 cm. Areas of thicker ice appeared to coincide with areas of lower tidal currents.

Figure 9.7 1997 Ice Monitoring Study Measurement Sites Along the Shipping Route

The cycle of ice thickness along the shipping route during the winter of 1997 (Cormorant Ltd. 1997) is shown in Figure 9.8. Typical snow depths on the ice ranged from 5 to 25 cm from January to mid-March, increasing to between 30-40 cm in late March and April (peak values were over 50 cm).

Hindcast modelling of ice thickness enables the estimation of ice conditions that likely occurred in previous winters, based on freezing and thawing records. This method does not consider snow cover directly. Coefficients in the empirical ice growth formula were selected such that the predicted curve closely matched the Hopedale mean ice thickness (Figure 9.6) when run with the average Hopedale freezing records. The same formula was applied to predict Nain thickness values with Nain climate records for a given winter. The results agreed with 1997 measurements (to within 10 cm) when the model was run with climate data collected from a temporary automated weather station on Paul Island (Figure 9.7).

Figure 9.8 Ice Thickness Along Shipping Route

9.1.3.4 Pack Ice

"The pack ice can be a problem after the land fast ice goes if there are persistent northeast and easterly winds. It can drive in between the islands and on the headlands, preventing boats from travelling until as late as August". (Williamson 1997:41)

Pack ice along the Labrador coast is highly variable, with the mid-winter width (east-west) of the pack ice zone at the Nain latitude varying from as little as 40 km to almost 200 km (Dickins 1997). Shifts of the wind from onshore to offshore can rapidly expand or contract the pack ice. The ice within the pack alternates between states of relative looseness caused by the prevailing winter offshore winds (westerlies December to March) and an infrequent state of extreme pressure where the pack is driven against the shore by inshore winds (easterlies).

The potential for ice pressure was studied by searching for discrete climatic events with strong, sustained onshore winds coinciding with high concentrations of thick pack ice (Dickens 1997). The results point to a low frequency and duration of severe ice pressure in the pack ice off the north Labrador coast. Durations of each event ranged from 9 to 35 hours, and the mean wind speeds during a single event ranged from 37 to 60 km/hour. The timing of events varied greatly from year to year but tended to concentrate in the months of March or April. An "average" year saw one potential ice pressure event lasting for 18 hours. The 1988 ice season stands out with having had six potentially serious ice pressure situations between March and June lasting a total of 109 hours. Even in this "worst" year, the pressure condition used in this analysis persisted for only 4 percent of the time.

When the pack ice is in a loose state, the mobile ice can move south at a rapid rate. For example, Prinsenberg (1988) traced a beacon deployed off the coast near Nain (58ºW) for 10 days at an average rate of 50 km/day. Another beacon deployed at the same time but closer to the fast ice edge tended to move at about one-third the speed. LeDrew and Gustajtis (1979) quote ice speeds measured in 1977 as high as 120 km/day in the main pack ice stream, with 75 percent of the measurements showing rates in excess of 20 km/day.

Large concentrations of pack ice normally persist on the shipping approaches to the Nain area into early July. It is not unusual to encounter pack ice, often including fragments of old ice, as late as the end of July (for example, in 1996).

Older, multi-year ice (called Arctic ice) drifting south from Baffin Bay makes up a small proportion of the overall pack (usually much less than 10 percent). Multi-year ice loses almost all its brine and is much harder than first year ice, and can be a hazard for vessels. In addition, icebergs can be encountered year round on the approaches to the fast edge.

9.1.3.5 Rattles/Hinge Ice/Sina

Within the fast ice are several areas with special characteristics: rattles, hinge ice and the sina.

"Rattle" is a local term used to describe localized patches of persistent open water or thin ice, usually associated with narrows and channels with strong tidal action (for example Bridges Passage near Nain). Coastal residents take great care to avoid these areas due to the danger of breaking through the ice. The shipping route does not pass directly through the rattles shown in Figure 9.9.

A number of additional areas were identified as rattles in workshops and informal discussions with people in Nain. One of these areas is located on the shipping route between a small islet immediately to the south of the route and the southeast shore of Paul Island. During the winter of 1997, VBNC monitored a series of ice thickness stations along the shipping route (Cormorant Ltd. 1997). Three of these points (#580, #595 and #610) straddled the area known as a rattle at the end of Paul Island (Figure 9.7). Station #595, in the area expected to be most affected by the tidal flow through the constricted passage, consistently showed thinner ice (by 20 to 30 cm) than the two stations on either side. For example, on February 1, station #595 had 43 cm of ice, while the stations immediately to the east and west had 65 cm of ice. These results show that while thinner than the surrounding fast ice, the ice along this part of the route can still freeze to form a substantial ice cover and does not remain openevery winter.

Figure 9.9 Locations of "Rattles"

"Hinge ice" is a term used to describe a particular nearshore geometry of parallel tidal cracks which can lead to the creation of a temporary air cavity beneath the ice foot or ledge (known as the ballicater) adhering to steep rocky shorelines. The tidal crack area in shallow water along the shore is used to set seal nets (Williamson 1997). "Hinge" ice is described by a Labrador resident in Boles et al. (1983):

"Between the ballicater and the main part of the floating ice sheet ice there is often a narrow band of ice which serves as a kind of double hinge, tipping down as the tide falls but held to ballicater by friction on its edge. This creates a long air space or lead which seals use as a breathing place, and which enable them to fish in the shallower water along the shore. Such a place can be a good seal net berth."

Given the high degree of variability in shoreline morphology in the Nain area, it is likely that even within a region of steep rocky shorelines, which would appear to favour the formation of "hinge ice", the phenomena may occupy only a small portion (if any at all) of the total shoreline.

For additional information on fast ice areas important for winter seal habitat, caribou migration and coastal travel refer to Chapters 13, 16 and 20 respectively.

Polar bears, seals, and birds tend to congregate along ice edges or sina as these areas have relatively high levels of nutrients and marine productivity during the winter.

9.1.4 Likely Future Conditions

From a participant in the LIA study: "During the fall before freeze-up we used to always see vapour, the fog above the water before freeze-up. We don't see that anymore therefore the texture at the make up of the ice freezes up before different times what it used to be in the past...its maker...it's not so solid frozen as it used to be...it melts quicker..." (Williamson 1997).

The timing of fast ice formation and decay, and the winter extent of fast ice are highly variable from year to year and within a given season. In the absence of Project activities, ice conditions will continue to be variable.

Assumptions of climate change over the life of the Project are discussed in Chapter 8 and include an increase in climate variability, a small decrease in temperature (less than one Celsius degree), and a sea level rise of 12 cm. Nain residents interviewed in Williamson (1997) have commented on their own observations of local climate change, including later freeze-up, less snow cover on the ice, milder winters, and more rapid break-ups (although the timing is the same).