Chapter 9

9.2 Environmental Effects Assessment

VBNC is clearly mindful of the concerns expressed by LIA and the Innu Nation regarding shipping through landfast ice, and, accordingly, will try to ship primarily through open water. However, given the construction schedule and planned production rates for the Project, VBNC requires the flexibility to ship through landfast ice during all phases of the Project. Given the concerns expressed regarding any shipping beyond the open water season, appropriate mitigation measures will be implemented by VBNC, including that shipping will not be undertaken during the freeze-up period until the ice reaches a safe thickness, or during the early spring when most seal hunting occurs.

The following assessment is focused on shipping in fast ice. Winter shipping will produce a ship track in the fast ice during two periods: mid-winter and break-up (Table 9.4). Appendix 9A contains a synthesis of the environmental effects analysis.

Table 9.4 Potential Environmental Effects

Potential Environmental Effects	Project Phase	Project Activities
physical effects during mid-winter	all	winter shipping
physical effects during break-up	all	winter shipping

The shipping route will follow the track that passes near Whale Island, as indicated in Figure 9.1.

VBNC recognizes concerns expressed by North Coast residents related to tracks made by ships in fast ice. The safety of snowmobiles, caribou and seals, and the integrity of ice as habitat, may be affected by the vessel track. VBNC will consult with LIA, Innu Nation and Labrador communities about communications, safety precautions and the timing of shipping. VBNC will seek to communicate its shipping schedules with LIA and the Innu Nation to provide relevant communities with timely information.

Consistent with the mitigation measures to be implemented, no shipping will occur during the following periods:

first appearance of fast ice until the young sheet reaches 20 cm to reduce interference with ice freeze up and avoid cracking of the ice sheet away from the ship track; and

during early spring when most seal hunting occurs.

The following discussion assumes that the start of shipping in early winter, and again in the spring, will be determined by actual ice conditions at the time and by consultation with LIA and the Innu Nation.

Vessels up to 50,000 (dead weight) tonnes are being considered to serve the Project. For the purposes of this discussion, a vessel with the following characteristics is assumed:

25,000 (dead weight) tonnes;

10.6 m draft;

170 m long; and

25 m wide (beam).

Shipping frequencies in the winter are expected to average 10 to 20 days between arrivals at the dock in Edward's Cove (i.e., 4-8 trips per ice season). Any vessel selected for winter service will be capable of operating in conditions of maximum mid-winter ice thickness and snow cover.

9.2.1 Canadian and International Shipping Through Ice

There is considerable experience with tracks created by year-round shipping through fast ice in Canadian waters and the Baltic Sea:

operations with the icebreaking cargo vessel MV Arctic to the Nanisivik and Polaris (Cominco) mine sites in the Canadian High Arctic (Norland Science and Engineering Ltd. 1986; Robson 1982; Strandberg et al. 1984; Wells and Nazarenko 1990);

previous experience with fall, winter and spring operations of icebreakers through fast ice in the Beaufort Sea by Canmar and Gulf Canada from 1976 to 1987 (Watt 1982; Danielewicz et al. 1983);

specific Labrador and Eastern Arctic experiences with trial voyages into Lake Melville of CCGS Sir John Franklin, MV Arctic, and Polarstern (Melville Shipping 1982; National Research Council 1980; Newfoundland Department of Development and Tourism 1985); the Hebron area (Transportation Development Centre 1985) and Deception Bay March 1991 (Falconbridge 1993); and

long-term experiences with winter cargo ship operations in the Baltic Sea.

Most of the practical experience with icebreaking bulk cargo vessels operating in Canadian waters is associated with the MV Arctic. This vessel began regular service to the Nanisivik lead-zinc mine on Northern Baffin Island in July 1978. In addition, the ship has made a number of experimental winter voyages in different areas including two on the east coast: Lake Melville in 1981 and Deception Bay in 1991.

Over the past fifteen years, the MV Arctic has expanded its Arctic commercial operations to include the Bent Horn oil field on Cameron Island and Cominco's Polaris mine on Little Cornwallis Island. Research projects with this vessel include several studies of ship tracks (Robson 1982; Strandberg et al. 1984; Newfoundland Department of Development and Tourism 1985). Results from the MV Arctic provide useful information on operating a large icebreaking bulk carrier in the winter and spring with a number of repeated transits along the same channel. In addition, the results of multiple voyages through fast ice in the Beaufort Sea have been documented (Danielewicz et al. 1983).

The Baltic Sea countries depend on commercial shipping in ice for a large proportion of their cargo trade. In Sweden alone, five million tonnes of cargo (out of an annual total of 12 million tonnes) is shipped to and from ports north of Stockholm each year during the winter months (National Maritime Administration 1994). In Finland, 22 harbours are kept open throughout the winter to accommodate a high volume of traffic. For example, during the winter of 1990-1991 the total number of winter vessel movements in Finland was 17,948 (port calls, arrivals and departures). The same vessels transported 21.7 million tonnes of cargo during the winter months (Finnish National Board of Navigation 1991). Many island residents in the Finnish archipelago rely on ice roads that cross cargo ship and ferry tracks that have daily vessel movements. These routes have been kept open for year-round navigation since the 1970s.

Year-round shipping through pack and fast ice on the East Coast of Canada is also a major part of the routine annual shipping business. Vessels operate on a regular basis in many ports such as Botwood on Newfoundland's east coast where a total of 90 vessels were accommodated in 1995 (52 voyages were completed in the ice season). Total gross registered tonnage (GRT) movements during that winter ice season totalled 386,341. Botwood, with a maximum (at the dock) ice thickness of 80 cm is considered a year-round port. (The Labrador pack ice, on the approaches to Botwood, is often ridged and under compression such that it reaches thicknesses exceeding several metres). Botwood harbour ship pilots report that there is substantial snowmobile traffic in the area and that local residents have been observed crossing the ship-made ice track.

On Newfoundland's west coast, several ports, for example Corner Brook, operate year-round. Corner Brook, like Botwood, has prevailing onshore winter winds that create ridges several metres thick. In 1995, Corner Brook accommodated some 352 ship movements, 215 of which were carried out during the winter ice season, moving over 340,000 metric tonnes of cargo. The earliest arrival and the latest date of departure of ice from the Bay of Islands were December 18 and July 2.

In the St. Lawrence River, winter navigation to Montreal is a normal activity. Using ice breaker support, ships normally operate between several ports on the St. Lawrence River transporting all types of cargo including crude oils, refined products, acids, bulk cargo and ore concentrates. Ice thickness measurements in the St. Lawrence River range from a low of about 40 cm to a maximum of 126 cm, recorded near Quebec City.

The following sections combine the knowledge gained from winter shipping in other areas with actual ice conditions recorded along the shipping route, in order to analyze the potential physical effects of winter vessel traffic within the Landscape Region. Results are summarized in Appendix 9A.

9.2.2 Physical Effects During Mid-Winter

Refer to Chapters 13, 16 and 20 for an analysis of the effects of winter shipping on marine mammals, caribou and local travel, respectively.

The mid-winter period encompasses the time from the first voyage after the fast ice has reached a thickness of 20 cm until early spring. On average this period will begin in early January but there can be variations in dates in different years. The ice thickness threshold of 20 cm will reduce shipping interference with the natural ice freeze-up and avoid cracking of the ice sheet away from the ship track.

Limits will be placed on vessel speeds through ice to avoid interference with the fast ice in the region. A safe minimum operating speed to maintain acceptable maneuvering and tracking of the vessel is 7 to 9 knots. Experiences with the MV Arctic have shown that this limit represents a good compromise between operational safety and reduced breaking of the track edge through bow wave effects (Falconbridge 1993).

The geographic extent and nature of any physical effects on the fast ice as a result of winter shipping will depend on several factors: the width of the shipping corridor, patterns of track re-use, and the mechanisms and timing of refreezing within the track after a vessel has passed. Along most of the shipping route, from the ice edge to the approaches into Edward's Cove, the width of the winter shipping corridor is determined largely by the need to accommodate the build-up in ice thickness in the multiple tracks contained within the corridor. This natural build-up has been well documented in previous studies where ships have made a number of passes through the same ice track (see further discussion below). Using a strategy proven through years of successful operation in the Baltic Sea, vessels will operate within a channel approximately equal to two vessel beam widths during the first few voyages. A buffer of 20 m is added to account for the possibility of breaking pieces of the channel edge in successive passes when the ice is close to 20 cm thick. As the ice thickens from 20 to 60 cm, the broken track will be deliberately widened until, by the time the undisturbed ice reaches about 60 cm thickness, the vessels will operate within a corridor equivalent to three beam widths plus a small 5 m buffer zone on each side, equivalent to an overall width of approximately 85 m. Subsequent voyages will be conducted within this corridor width.

This strategy of deliberately widening the shipping corridor early in the season to allow effective track re-use in successive voyages, reduces the overall area of refrozen ice created through the winter. This strategy is more satisfactory than breaking a new track every few trips, which would otherwise be necessary to avoid the ice thickness built-up in the channel. Within the port area itself, the corridor will have to be slightly wider to accommodate the turning of the vessels as they approach and depart.

Previous studies of multiple ship passages down a single channel have demonstrated that consolidation and refreezing is extremely rapid. Ice breaking activity results in super cooled water being exposed to cold temperatures, and ice blocks being overturned in the channel, so that the cold surface of many blocks becomes submerged and bonds instantly to any other on contact. In such a scenario, the void spaces between the blocks are small and freeze quickly. After a series of passages, the depth of the brash ice in the channel becomes substantially thicker than the surrounding ice.

Refer to a further analysis of safety issues for local residents in Chapter 20.

Measurements in the Baltic with ships passing every 1 to 3 days have documented maximum thicknesses in the shipping channel of 1.17 m in late December, with level (undisturbed) ice of 0.43 m, and a maximum thickness of 2.0 m in late February with level ice at 0.75 m (Sandkvist 1981). Even allowing for the reduced frequency of winter traffic planned for the Project (up to 8 trips a season) there will still be a measurable increase in ice thickness within refrozen tracks in the shipping corridor, as a result of winter traffic. This increase in thickness will assist travellers in safely crossing the recently refrozen ship track after a short waiting period. This period is estimated at between two and five hours, longest in early January and late March and shortest in February. The refreeze time for the ship track depends on the amount of brash ice remaining in the ship track, the thickness of ice blocks in the channel, and air and water temperatures.

The period necessary for the track to solidify and provide a secure surface for crossing has been estimated on the basis of the following data sources, which describe the likely composition of ice in the track left behind the ship, and the refreezing rates of ice in the ship track after a number of passages:

trials with the Kigoriak ice-breaker in McKinley Bay, NWT to determine the time required for refreezing and safe crossing of the track in the winter; and

tests with the icebreaking tug Valkyria in the Baltic, specifically aimed at determining the growth of brash ice in the channel.

9.2.2.1 Kigoriak Trials

A series of tests were conducted with the Canmar icebreaker Kigoriak in the winter of 1981/1982 from late November to March (Danielewicz et al. 1983). During this program, the ice breaker repeatedly used a short section of track, either on its own or with one or two other vessels under escort. The icebreaker used the track 20 times in November, 12 times from the end of November to mid-December, and then did not use the track again until late March.

During the late November Kigoriak tests, it was found that the slush in the track refroze to a depth of 5 cm in 2 hours at an air temperature of -25 ° C. The November tests showed that after a two hour wait, there was sufficient strength and buoyancy in a brash-filled channel to support a komatik (sled) loaded with 600 kilograms. While minor fracturing of new ice between the broken blocks occurred, this did not interfere with the safe crossing. Following the March 27 measurements, a refreezing rate of 15 cm/day for the first 2 days was measured (at an air temperature of -25 ° C), followed by a slower rate of 3 cm/day for the next 6 days. By this time, the buoyancy of the ice pieces in the channel was sufficient to allow snowmachines to cross the track almost immediately after the icebreaker had passed (except directly behind the moving ship in the open wake created by the propeller wash).

9.2.2.2 Valkyria Tests

Ice thickness tests were conducted with the icebreaking tug Valkyria in the Swedish harbour of Lulea (Sandkvist 1981). Tests were carried out from December to April 1978/79 on two short tracks through which the tug made repeated passages approximately every 1-3 days. First year ice in the harbour reached its maximum thickness of 0.8 m by the end of March. This is about 25 percent thinner than expected on the approaches to Anaktalak Bay in an average year, but comparable with the Labrador Coast in a mild winter (worst case for track crossing). On December 20, the maximum thickness measured in the brash ice profile was 1.17 m (level ice was 0.43 m), and on February 20 the maximum brash ice thickness was 2.0 m (level ice was 0.75 m).

9.2.2.3 Refreezing Along the Shipping Route

Track refreezing rates discussed here assume that there will be a substantial accumulation of broken pieces in the ship track (with an equivalent concentration of 7/10 or higher¾ indicating that most of the pieces are in contact at some point around their periphery). Behind any vessel breaking ice, there will be a caution area of increased risk to on-ice traffic. This caution area will be a band as wide as the most recent track through the fast ice (roughly equivalent to the beam of the vessel, or 25 m) and as long as the length of track not yet safely refrozen. The caution area is a measure of how far the vessel will have travelled after passing a point on the track that is now deemed safe for transit (based on hours elapsed since the vessel passed that point). Depending on the speed of the vessel through the ice and the estimated time taken for the track to refreeze, the length of the caution zone will vary from a low of about 22 km to a maximum of about 74 km.

In most cases, therefore, the ship track along more than half of the shipping route in fast ice will refreeze into a solid surface long before the ship has reached the opposite end of the route (either entering or leaving). As a result, the physical disturbance of winter shipping can be seen as a temporary event lasting for a matter of hours following each passage of the vessel. Following this event, the remaining physical manifestation of the winter shipping operation will be a corridor approximately 85 m in width containing a number of refrozen tracks from the ice edge to the port site. Dimensions and areas of this refrozen corridor are calculated below.

Table 9.5 summarizes the estimated dimensions and areas of the shipping corridor incorporating the refrozen ship tracks described above. The physical area increases with the thickening ice as the corridor is widened and the fast ice edge extends further to the east. The corridor length is measured from the fast ice edge (sina) to the approaches to Edward's Cove. Calculations in Table 9.5 assume conservatively that once the ice reaches 60 cm thickness, the vessels enter the ice edge in the vicinity of the Hen and Chickens, which is generally the maximum seaward sina position (Figures 9.3 to 9.5). In the regional context, the broken ice area (8.3 km²) represents less than 0.5 percent of the minimum extent of fast ice shown in Figure 9.1 (2,200 km² as calculated in JWEL 1997b).

Table 9.5 Area of Shipping Corridor Incorporating Refrozen Ship Tracks: Fast Ice Edge to the Entrance to Anaktalak Bay

Ice thickness (cm)	Broken Ice Width (m)	Broken Ice Length (km)	Broken Ice Area ^a (km²)
20 to 60 cm	70^b<	80^d	5.6
60 cm to break-up	85^c	98	8.3

Notes:
^a the area in Edward's Cove near dockside is not included in these estimates
^b 2 beam widths plus a 20 m buffer
^c 3 beam widths plus a 10 m buffer
^d ice edge close to Whale Island in January
Source: Dickins 1997

Other effects on the fast ice as a result of winter operations include possible interaction with rattles, hinge ice and the ice edge (sina) as described in Sections 9.1.3.2 and 9.1.3.5.

The shipping route does not pass through any established open water rattles (Figure 9.9); however, there are a number of constricted areas where tidal currents could lead to thinner ice during the winter, as indicated, for example, by measurements taken during the winter of 1997 off the southeast corner of Paul Island. There is no evidence that these areas will remain open during the mid-winter period when vessels will be moving through. Given that the ice in these areas is thicker than the 20 cm threshold for initiating winter shipping, there would appear to be no other physical effects unique to these locations as a result of the vessel's passage in mid-winter. The 1997 measurements indicate that the ice in the vicinity of any adjacent rattles near the shipping route will still be thicker than this threshold during this time frame.

The potential interaction between the icebreaking operations and hinge ice depends on the degree to which the presence of a broken ice track leads to any lateral movement of the ice sheet away from shore on one or both sides of the track (thereby collapsing the hinge). While difficult to quantify, this linkage can be explored by looking at potential environmental effects at different locations along the shipping route.

The hinge ice phenomenon is highly localized along the shipping route. Much less than 20 km of the total shoreline length from the east end of Paul Island to Edward's Cove (counting all shoreline directly facing the route on either side) contains potential candidate locations for hinge ice. Hinge ice is only a special condition of the more general ice feature known as a tidal crack. This crack, or in some cases multiple cracks, marks the boundary between bottom fast ice in shallow water and the floating fast ice that rises and falls on the tide. The cyclical tidal action working the edges of these adjacent ice sheets maintains the presence of the tidal crack(s) after the vessel has passed.

In order to generate any appreciable movement or displacement of the surrounding ice sheet, the two unconstrained boundaries of the sheet (in this case a tidal crack on one side and the edge of the broken track on the other) need to be roughly parallel and the ice sheet between the boundaries needs to be free of natural anchors such as shoals, inlets, or islands. Convoluted shorelines common along much of the shipping route (e.g., embayments and curved promontories) will tend to lock the cover in place and inhibit movement. Using these factors as a guide, it appears unlikely that the fast ice to the east of Paul Island could be displaced as a result of a vessel's passage. Surrounding islands and shoals in this area will act as natural barriers to movement with or without the ship track. Beyond the east end of Paul Island on the inbound passage, the shipping route starts to resemble more of a continuous channel where conceivably there could be some limited ice displacement in the short time between the vessel's passage and the refreezing of the track. In order for such displacement to occur, the winds would have to blow strongly from north or south across the channel, a very unlikely condition given the channeling of the inshore winds by the local fjord terrain.

The size of the largest ice pieces, which could be dislodged from the ice edge (sina) where a vessel enters the fast ice, can be judged from an analysis of broken ice piece sizes measured in ship tracks after a single passage. Daley and Noble (1979) plotted the piece size against ice thickness from a series of four model tests and observations with seven different vessels in the Baltic, Antarctic, St. Lawrence River, and the Bering Sea (including two large icebreaking cargo ships). Results of that work indicate that the ice piece widths broken off from the track as a ship penetrates the fast ice edge may range from 4 m across in 0.30 m of ice, to 10 m across in 1.3 m of ice. Vast floes (in excess of 2 km diameter) often naturally break away from the fast ice edge throughout the winter period in response to wind and tidal forces. As a result, the very localized and small scale effects of vessels penetrating the fast ice edge cannot be viewed as a threat to the overall stability of the fast ice edge. This conclusion is further confirmed by field trials with icebreakers deliberately penetrating the ice edge during the spring (see following discussion).

Although not strictly an environmental effect on the ice sheet, the issue of transient surges in water levels immediately during and after passage of an icebreaking ship has been considered in previous studies. Strandberg et al. (1984) demonstrated in trials with the MV Arctic in Admiralty Inlet, NWT, that any local surges in water levels are limited to a fairly narrow band within 20 m of the track edge. The surge itself was measured to be less than 15 cm, which was considered insufficient to flood seal dens. Speed restrictions will further reduce any effects related to the creation of wakes.

9.2.3 Physical Effects During Break-up

The shipping route (Figure 9.1) will be closed to shipping in early spring. Consequently, the physical effects of winter shipping during much of the melt period in May will be limited to the presence of a refrozen corridor of ship tracks left from the mid-winter period. After the last mid-winter voyage prior to early spring, the ice in the shipping corridor will have a period to reconsolidate and gain additional thickness before beginning to melt in early May. Previous experience has shown that refrozen ice in a previous ship track can melt faster than the surrounding ice sheet (e.g., Falconbridge 1993). Conversely, the thicker ice associated with a ship's track could persist late into the melt period. Any premature opening of the shipping corridor ahead of the surrounding fast ice will likely fall within the short period prior to break-up, when, although still relatively intact, the fast ice is often no longer safe for travel (Williamson 1997). Shipping will recommence prior to the final break-up of the fast ice.

There are three physical effects that need to be considered when shipping in fast ice during or immediately prior to break-up; changes to the stability of the ice edge; a possible increase in the mobility of the melting ice sheet; and possible interference with any open rattles along the route.

In order for a vessel's track to influence the floe edge (sina) break-up on a large scale (kilometres or tens of kilometres), a ship must deliberately carve a V-shaped wedge in the ice, leaving a section free to drift out to sea in an offshore wind. Without this deliberate action, the broken track by itself will not destabilize the ice edge. Several cases of icebreaking ships penetrating fast ice have been studied to prove this point. In one case, the CCGS Louis St. Laurent entered fast ice during the melt season and continued for a distance of 37 km with a track width of 30 metres. The track had no effect on either the ice edge or subsequent break-up of the fast ice (Petro Canada 1979). In another example, in late July 1979, the MV Arctic and a Coast Guard icebreaker entered Admiralty Inlet, penetrating 90 km into 2 m thick ice that was already cracked and melting. There was no immediate movement of the sheet, and the break-up was unaffected by the "slot" cut by the ships (Strandberg et al. 1984).

There can be localized effects on the ice cover where the vessel arrives late in the winter after the ice sheet is floating free from the land and already partly mobile. In extreme cases, it is possible to set large pans of fast ice adrift from the shore by not paying attention to the geometry of the ice and shoreline. Numerous offshore islands on the approaches to Paul Island act as natural anchors to hold the fast ice in position. In past experiences entering much more open and exposed bays, simple modifications to the route, such as entering the ice at a different point or angle, have eliminated any possible effects (Strandberg et al. 1984; Petro Canada 1979; Canadian Coast Guard 1990). Canarctic has used these procedures successfully since 1984 in its regular voyages to the Nanisivik mine on Baffin Island and during its 1991 trial voyage into Deception Bay (Falconbridge 1993). In these cases, procedures and routes were worked out in cooperation with the nearby communities of Arctic Bay and Salluit.

Vessels operating along the shipping route close to final break-up may encounter small openings in the ice corresponding to rattles (refer to discussion in Section 9.1.3.5). As noted earlier, the rattles mapped by local residents are off the shipping route. One area known to open up prior to break-up of the surrounding fast ice occurs off the southeast corner of Paul Island, in the vicinity of station #595, monitored during 1997 winter ice studies. A Radarsat image taken on May 31, 1996, two weeks prior to break-up, showed patches of open water several hundred metres in extent across the shipping route at this point (Dickins 1996). Provided the vessel maintains a slow speed when passing through the opening, there will be no effect on the nature or progression of the opening. Several small floes less than 10 m across may break off as the ship leaves the ice edge on one side of the opening and enters the opposite ice edge on the far side.

In summary, the size of pieces broken off the ice edge during normal operations (refer to discussion in 9.2.1.1) and any advances or changes to the nature of regional break-up patterns are of such a small scale and short duration that they will not be noticed within the natural year-to-year variability in fast ice conditions within the Landscape Region.

9.2.4 Accidental Effects

The presence of oil in ice in thick trapped layers has been demonstrated through experimental spills to have only a small effect on ice growth during the winter. In two experiments, oiled ice tended to melt somewhat faster (from several days to one week) than the surrounding sheet due to the increased solar absorption of the dissolved ice. Regional break-up was unaffected in either case by the presence of a number of oiled areas in the ice sheet (Norcor 1975; Dickins and Buist 1981).

With the highly localized area of the main oil body predicted in these scenarios, any effect of the oiled ice on either the growth or the melt rate will not affect the fast ice in the region.

Any significant volume of concentrate which might escape from a ruptured hull in an accident would quickly sink through the broken ice surrounding the vessel and fall to the seabed. Any residual concentrate trapped in the ice would not be present insufficient quantities to affect the ice sheet itself.

9.2.5 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Ship noise and effects on marine mammals are discussed in Chapter 13.

Apart from Project-related traffic, there are no plans for any other shipping through the fast ice into Anaktalak Bay. The only other existing traffic involves snowmobiles used by local residents as they travel between communities for visits and to harvest resources on the ice and to hunting camps up and down the coast. No cumulative effects are anticipated.

9.2.6 Climate Change

The expected magnitude of natural climate change over the life of the Project will not measurably alter the sea ice environment beyond the range in variability commonly experienced in the present day. In terms of any potential climate changes attributable to the Project, the area of the refrozen ice corridor is not considered sufficient to produce any regional effects (less than 10 km² out of more than 2,200 km² of fast ice in the Assessment Area). In addition, any localized exposure of open water along the shipping track in the winter will last only a few hours during each transit.

9.2.7 Environmental Design and Mitigation

There are a variety of operational techniques, seasonal restrictions, and vessel design alternatives that can be used to reduce potential adverse effects of shipping in the ice environment. VBNC will consult LIA, Innu Nation, and Labrador communities to determine the most appropriate scheduling for shipping given the needs of the Project and the mitigation measures to be implemented. Communications and safety issues will be discussed and addressed using local knowledge of the ice environment.

Other mitigation measures which may be employed to reduce residual effects of winter shipping on wildlife or coastal communities are addressed in Chapters 4, 13, 16 and 20.

The following list outlines the measures which will directly reduce or limit the physical effects to the fast ice cover.

9.2.7.1 Early Winter

Shipping through ice will not start until the ice is at least 20 cm in thickness. This will reduce or eliminate any possibility of interfering with the initial formation of fast ice and of introducing cracks into the new sheet.

The shipping route will be maintained as much as possible in the centre of channels, thereby reducing possible physical effects on young and thin first- year ice (close to 20 cm thick) forming out from shore.

Speed limits will reduce the possibility of cracking away from the track early in the season and will also limit any breaking of pieces off the edge of the track (particularly during the outgoing passages).

9.2.7.2 Mid-winter

The overall area of refrozen ice along the shipping route will be reduced by using a dedicated corridor wide enough to allow vessels to make repeated passages without having to break new tracks in previously unbroken ice.

Ramming through fast ice will be avoided by selecting vessels with the necessary ice breaking capabilities to handle the anticipated level ice thickness along the route in fast ice.

9.2.7.3 Break-up

Terminating winter shipping in early spring to facilitate seal hunting will allow time for the ice corridor to reconsolidate (refreeze) before the onset of melting in May. This will delay any possible early opening of the shipping track until late in the season.

9.3 Residual Environmental Effects

The definitions for the rating of residual environmental effects significance are as follows:

A major (significant) residual environmental effect is one where vessel operations through fast ice are judged to alter the regional timing of freeze-up or break-up or the location of the fast ice edge (Ice Assessment Area) such that the disturbance to the regional ice regime falls outside of the normal year-to-year variability in natural conditions.

A moderate (significant) residual environmental effect is one where changes to the ice cover, although falling within the documented annual variability, are still noticeable on a temporal or spatial scale (Ice Assessment Area) (i.e., shifts in freeze-up or break-up in excess of two days and changes to the ice edge in the order of kilometres).

A minor (not significant) residual environmental effect is one where any changes to the ice cover (Ice Assessment Area) as a result of winter shipping are limited to temporal changes in the order of two days or less, or displacements in the ice cover of less than 100 m.

A negligible (not significant) residual environmental effect is one where shipping-related changes in ice cover are of such magnitude as to be indiscernible from natural spatial (Ice Assessment Area) and temporal variability in fast ice conditions within a given winter.

Residual effects of winter shipping on marine mammals, other wildlife and coastal communities are discussed in Chapters 13, 16 and 20.

The residual environmental effects of winter shipping on the physical ice environment remaining after mitigation are summarized in Table 9.6.

Table 9.6 Summary of Residual Environmental Effects

Project Phase	Residual Environmental Effect (s)	Significance	Likelihood ^a (Probability)	Sustainable Use (Capacity) of Renewable Resources ^a
Construction	physical effects during mid-winter and break-up	minor(not significant)	n/a	n/a
Operation	physical effects during mid-winter and break-up	minor(not significant)	n/a	n/a
Decommissioning	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
post-decommissioning	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
accidental events	accelerated or differential melting due to an oil spill	negligible(not significant)	n/a	n/a

^a likelihood and sustainable use of renewable resources are only defined for adverse environmental effects that are significant (moderate or major) (CEAA 1994: 84,187).
n/a = not applicable

9.3.1 Construction

Shipping in ice during construction will have minor (not significant) residual environmental effects on the regional ice cover.

9.3.2 Operation

Shipping in ice during operation will have minor (not significant) residual environmental effects on the regional ice cover.

9.3.3 Accidental Events

The presence of a localized patch of oil in or under the ice after an accidental release will not affect the subsequent growth or decay of the fast ice in any regional sense. The residual environmental effects on ice of an accidental oil spill on the ice cover is rated negligible (not significant).

9.3.4 Follow-up Program

There are no compliance requirements for monitoring ice conditions. The process for the follow-up program, including monitoring, is outlined in Chapter 4.

9.4 References

Allen W.T. 1977. Freeze-up, Break-up and Ice Thickness in Canada. Fisheries and Environment Canada, Atmospheric Environment, Downsview.

Boles, B., L. Jackson and M. Mackey. 1983. Breaking the Ice: Seal and Seal Harvesting Patterns and Benefits in Relation to Navigational Icebreaking in Lake Melville, Labrador. Report prepared by Labrador Institute of Northern Studies and Memorial University of Newfoundland for Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Goose Bay.

Canadian Coast Guard. 1990. Polar 8 Icebreaker: Initial Environmental Evaluation. Report prepared by team of consultants: Bureau of Management Consulting, CCG, LGL Limited, Lutra Associates Ltd., Melville Shipping Ltd. and Norland Science & Engineering Ltd., Ottawa.

Canadian Ice Service. 1996. A Preliminary Look at Ice Conditions Around Voisey's Bay. Information sheet produced by the Atmospheric Environment Service, Ottawa (unpublished).

Canadian Ice Service. 1992. Ice Thickness Climatology: 1961 - 1990 Normals. Produced by Atmospheric Environment Service Ottawa pp. 64-65.

CEAA (Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency) 1994. Responsible Authority's Guide.

Cormorant Ltd. 1997. 1997 Voisey's Bay Ice Monitoring Program - Summary Report. Contract report to Voisey's Bay Nickel Company, St. John's.

Daley, C. and P. Noble, 1979. A Study of Bridging a Ship Track in Fast Ice.

Prepared by Arctic Canada Limited for Petro Canada, Calgary.

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Appendix 9A

Environmental Effects Assessment Matrix: Ice